I imagine that when the Kentucky Derby was first conceived it was probably thought of as the introduction of new talent. For some this has held true, especially horses with lower breeding ROIs like California Chrome and Animal Kingdom. But, for the majority of this century, the Kentucky Derby has been the horse's last victory (see Nyquist, Orb, Super Saver, Mine that Bird, Barbaro, Giacamo, Smarty Jones, Monarchos, Fusiachi Pegasus). And if we want to look at wins as a 4 year old that list becomes very select ( again the breeding shed value darlings: Chrome and Animal Kingdom). I bring this up to show how much I like Gun Runner and his connections for giving us someone to cheer for.
Risen Star Analysis
Mo Town is off the layoff and he's been eager in the mornings at Payson. Dutrow says he's happy, but that's what every trainer says. He doesn't have to win this, but he does seem to have the best chance. Guest Suite who won the LeComte also has a great shot. He finishes his races well, which suits this oval. He was no match for McCracken, but McCracken could be a beast. Untrapped was up for 2nd in the LeComte and should also be in the thick of it in the late stages. Nothing too cute here. Finally Reddam brings an Eskenderaya colt named So Conflated whose form improved over the Tapeta in last. It was smart to get this colt out of California, but post 14 in Louisiana doesn't seem ideal either.