Thursday, November 5, 2009

I'm not a Value capper, but in the economic times it might be helpful to consider Value. Actually that's a bunch of shit and any time you see or hear In these economic times or (ITE) in an ad, your bullshit sensor should be blaring. I like the credit card ads that explain that the only way to save money is by spending money. But enough of this digression, as I said I'm not a Value capper, I try to pick a winner every time. If the tote agrees, the tote agrees. I'm not the type always looking to outfox the crowds, though I might play harder if I see certain opportunities light up.

With the Breeders' Cup you see crazy things like Colonel John, Einstien and Gio Ponti at double digit odds. You see a turfer like Fernely whose quietly rounded into excellent form at 20-1. You see the resilient Capt. Candyman Can at 15-1. Even Zenyatta gets 5-2, which is something she hasn't been near in a long while. These are sumptuous, sumptuous prices. Impossible not to salivate over. So, I'll start my Breeders' review with some Value plays. Sure there's no value in a crumpled ticket, but there's nothing more crushing than watching a longshot you spotted then pussed out on get his picture taken.

Big Big Savings
Cloudy's Knight. There isn't too much value in the Marathon. These races are jockey races and tough to predict. Mastery outclasses the field, but a yankee has re-emerged after a year off to take consecutive victories in Kentucky. Sheppard is having an excellent year and there's not a trainer out there who deserves it more.

She Be Wild. Sure there's a local bias, but this small filly has raced really well then, for whatever reason, switched to Gomez for the Darley A, which she was collared in. I guess the idea was to get Gomez ready to ride her in the BC, but that backfired. Leparoux gets in the irons and he's no slouch. I like her and Negligee in the Juvenile Fillly.

Capt. Candyman Can. If you like Gayego, you'll love the Candyman. Calls for cappin the pace -- you gotta pray for fire on the front.

Aspire. Keneally juveniles are always good, but the distance is questionable. Still, at 20-1, take note of this colt.

Fernely. He's been running behind breakout races from Ventura and Colonel John, he likes the California sod, might be his turn.

had Mushka beat in last. Could overcome this field in her second stateside rally.

Gio Ponti
This classy guy is another nod to a classy trainer. Cristophe Clemente, as Joe Drape sagaciously points out, is the only trainer in the Breeders Cup this year who has no previous drug infractions. This guy runs a tight ship. Gio Ponti is our best turf horse, but he's also done well on synthetics. Oddly, the only worry I have (not a common worry for a turfer crossing over) is that he's made his move a little early in the past and that might work on Stotsfold but it won't work against Zenyatta or Mine That Bird.

Finally, if you haven't read the Joe Drape article, read it. It's stunning that every trainer in this year's Breeders Cup but Clemente has been busted. A lot of the drug infractions are the cause of disparate drug policies in the different circuits, and the big-time trainers have agents that screw things up. Some things can be forgiven, but the biggest threat, as he points out, is the fact that these infractions no longer impugn, disgrace or affect the business of the trainers. It has become like a parking ticket. And one that you don't really have to pay. Only the great racing state of Indiana has barred trainers from setting up family members or barn lieutenants from carrying on business as usual. If you care about the reputation of the sport, you should be alarmed by this.

1 comment:

  1. Cloudy's Knight loses head bob, gets place.
    She Be Wild wins for the home team!!!