Friday, November 6, 2009

Saturday BC

The turf has been playing quick as has the ProRide, but this year's BC has come to down to trip. Leparoux is cultivating some nice ones with She Be Wild and Informed Decision. I don't know how the frenchman does it; he waits and is rewarded. She Be Wild is a small filly, easier to glide through holes, but Informed Decision called for a tactical decision to lay closer to the pace. There isn't too much to take from the other races. The Ladies Classic was a strange race with a loose Careless Jewel. She's young. So give speed a slight edge tomorrow, though don't overdo it because pace has made the race.

BC Juv Turf
Tempting to go Euro here, but the OSA turf is nothing like European sod. The corners are tight, turns are left-hand, and the grass is bone dry. Pounced and Buzzword outclass and this means a lot in turf, but there's a McPeek horse named Bridgetown who could break out. McPeek hasn't done all that well in the BC and the trajectory for this colt is not typical, via Canada. But he has a nice middle move that could make a big difference. Interactif, another American won impressively at Keeneland in last, and that form has transferred well. I'm gonna figure out a scenario with those fellas. Take note that this race has no horse with experience over the track, so who knows what will happen. Go wtih value and nothin more exotic than an exacta.

Turf Sprint
California Flag is a compressed spring. He got loose on the track earlier this week and could get loose again. Strike the Deal seems to have some issues. There is a filly in here named Diamondrella. Again, coming from Keeneland. She has run lights out, and IEAH deserves props for choosing the right spots for her. She'll be closing fast. I'm also a big fan of Cannonball, but it's hard to see him in tip-top form. Should be fun watching em come down the hill.

Zensational, famous for slow breaks and rank runs gets the rail. Is he he all grows up? We'll see. Right now the narrative is of Baffert falling on his face, but that could change quick. The biggest challenge is synth specialist Fatal Bullet, and if they burn each other up as the form suggests is possible then Gayego and Capt Candyman Can loom in the shadows. I like Capt. Candyman Can very much, though he does seem the bridesmaid. So I'm gonna do the Phoenix replay and have the Bullet holding him off in the stretch.

I'm hoping punters dismiss D'Funnybone as a dirt horse who will fail because he looks great. Aikenite had a nice run at Keeeneland but nothing really special. Aspire, a Keneally juvenile could really surprise here.

Turf Mile
Goldikova returns. This time with Lasix. She'll be tough to beat, but I also like Ferneley in this race. He's been very quietly showing up in all the big pictures this year. He could break out. It'd be better if Ventura had won, but I like him better than Court Vision and Delegator.

Dirt Turf
Poor Mastercraftsman would seem invincible if it weren't for Sea the Stars. This mottled gray runner has tactical speed and experience over the synthetics. In some ways this race is an homage to Goldikova because so many turfers ducked her and ended up here. Mr. Sidney is another prime example. Hard to believe Bullsbay is 3-1 on the morning. He's ceretainlty not a miler, and this race usually goes to a specialist. Then there's Pyro who's ride to the Triple Crown was derailed on the plastics at Keeneland. I can't figure anything under the craftyman, so he's my Best Bet for the BC this year.

Precious Passion will be swallowed, but hopefully he'll swallow a lot of money too. Spanish Moon looks ready to romp here. Conduit defends but doesnt look to be in perfect form. I think the mantle will be handed over. The filly Dar Re Mi will be tough, but is she ready for this sort of race? Has she learned anything from the Arc. I hope so. The Euros are gonna take this.

This is such a great race. I can't wait for it. Zenyatta will be hopelessly overbet. But what can you do? She's amazing. Gio Ponti could be underbet and if he times his move right he could steal the purse, well not steal. This is a classy fellow. I'd love to see Mine That Bird in the action and Richard's Kid seems to be emerging at the right time. but I'm going with the mare and Gio.


  1. you caught the EXACTA here, no? If I were punting I would have nailed it

  2. I got it COLD! And it paid over $80.