Saturday, February 20, 2010

The Risen Fountain of the Southwest

First off, hoping for the speedy recovery of Lyndie Wade who took a nasty spill turning for home atop the filly Millenium Park on Friday. He fractured some vertebrae in the crash which will sideline him for 4-6 weeks, and Millenium Park had to be put down. Wishing him the best.

Onto the trail. We're all over the map this weekend. It's enough to scatter a humble man's brains. Dublin is the biggest winner from the Southwest's redraw. I've gone back and forth around this horse, whether or not I can see him as a new horse after the surgery or a return to the old Dublin that won. The propitious redraw was enough to swing the pendulum in his favor. The more I hear about Dryfly, the more I like. And I've thought less of the closing horses because, if they couldn't close in the Smarty Jones when the last furlong was a crawl why should they able to close now? For the Foutain of Youth I really like Jackson Bend. He's been working great and should be able to get a better trip. I feel less certain about Buddy's Saint because of the layoff and Eskedreya looked great in that first level allowance, but there's still too much we don't know about these guys. And then there's the anti-chalk pics of Aikenite, Pulsion and Prince Will I Am. I'll use them in my exotics. And now the Big Easy. I really like Drosselmeyer in this spot. I also like the big time closers Ron the Greek and Stay Put. Amoss always has a nice string at Arlington and I've cashed many a ticket with him -- of course that's a claiming circuit and Amoss is in loftier territory here. Stay Put may be overlooked even though he has two wins over the track and closed very nicely in last off some dull fractions. He's probably my value pick of all three stakes this weekend. Good luck everyone!

Fifty Bucks
Foutain of Youth
$1 trifecta 5,2 with 5,2,8 with 2,3,1,6,8
$6 exacta box 5/2/8

Risen Star
$10 exacta Drosselmeyer over Stay Put/Ron the Greek/Discretely Mine
$5 exacta box Stay Put/Ron the Greek
$5 exacta Stay Put, Drosselmeyer
$5 exacta Ron the Greek, Drosselmeyer

$10 exacta Dryfly over Dublin/Conveyance
$5 exacta Dublin over Dryfly/Conveyance
$5 WPS Dryfly
$3 trifecta Conveyance, Dryfly, Dublin
$2 trifecta Conveyance, Dublin, Dryfly


  1. Good picks. We pretty much agree on the Risen Star. I think it will be a Drosselmeyer / Stay Put exacta. Stay Put might pull the upset and win outright. Fairgrounds tends to favor the stretch runners.

    Don't have a great feel for the Southwest but think Pleasant Storm can improve from last race & should be in the mix.

  2. Three quick thoughts:

    Buddy's Saint looms a higher price next time out. Hopefully it'll be The Wood Memorial.

    Drosselmeyer may have regressed with his second race after a long route. He can bounce back also.

    DryFly needs the lead to win.