Friday, February 12, 2010

Robert Lew Part II, Sam D and the Onus of the Target

Last week jockey Richard Migliore, the Mig, gave a clinic at the Whirlaway Stakes on the mental precariousness of the three year old thoroughbred  in February. He watched eightyfiveinafifty's races and gate works, and he saw a pattern. An angle. Eightfive always broke flat-footed.

The Mig knew that eightyfive had posted the highest speed figure of any 3YO, but he also knew eightfiveinafifty didn't have to work through any tough spot that might in some way interfere with that explosive turn of foot. The Mig knew he broke flat so he saw his opportunity. He would guide his mount in front of eightyfive and steal the rail, making jockey Chavez commit early to a position. Chavez responded by asking the eightyfive for run, which may have been like dropping a pail of cold water on someone that was sleeping. Eightfive got the rail, but did so akwardly. There was worry about how he'd handle two turns, but he was already out after one. The Mig's tactic rattled the colt and Chavez made the wrong move, though neither are to blame for what would happen next. Eightyfive would crash through the temporary rail then hop another. He was found by a security guard on the backstretch with torn reins and a bit that some say was broke others say wasn't.

Because eightfive was such a "sure thing", Aqueduct moved the Whirlaway to be the third race on the card so as not to dillute the pick 6 with a free square. This was supposed to be prefunctory for eightyfive, sent off at 3-5 or so in a field of 6.

So how do we apply this knowledge to the Robert Lewis and Sam Davis? Tiz Chrome also looks precocious and also hasnt gone two turns. He'll likely be the prohib fave. And what about Rule in the Davis? Pletcher had talked about wanting to rate this colt, but with the rail won't his hand be forced? Well, I wish I knew how best to stray from the chalky option. The theme I've held this week is no forgiveness for last out. Sometimes you need to let a horse build off last, in the case of the Davis, Middle of the Nite would have to improve dramatically both the way he starts and finishes to match rule or even uptowncharleybrown. I'm going to oppose that. The only interesting plays I have are the horses getting the class test: Coracortado, uptowncharley and Schoolyard Dreams.  I can't ignore American Lion as much as I'm tempted to, this cat can bite. I think his problems may stem from getting lazy on the lead in the stretch, which you can't do in California. But that shouldn't be a huge threat as he's not facing a tough closer. You could play the pace meltdown with Dave in Dixie, but I think Tiz Chrome will not falter and American Lion, unlike Middle of the Nite, has not thrown in the towel when he sees he can't win.

Fifty Bucks
Robert Lewis
$25 exacta Tiz Chrome-American Lion
$10 exacta American Lion-Tiz Chrome
$10 exacta Tiz Chrome-Coracortado
$2 exacta box Coracortado/American Lion
$1 exacta Dave in Dixie-Tiz Chrome

Sam Davis
$35 Exacta Rule-Uptowncharleybrown
$15 exacta uptowncharleybrown-Rule

$1 trifecta Conveyance,Dryfly/Conveyance,Dryfly,Dublin/ Dublin, Kitty's Turn,Mission Impazible,Pleasant Storm ($14)
$5 exacta box Dublin-Dryfly ($10)
$3 exacta key Conveyance-Mission Impazible, Kitty's Turn ($6)
$5 W Conveyance, Dryfly ($10)
$5 exacta Conveyance-Dublin
$5 exacta Dryfly-Conveyance

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