Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Picks That Will Change

Endorsement's last minute defection due to a condyular fracture that the connections may or may not have been suspicious of allows Backtalk in. He'll be a big longshot, but not as improbable as Mine That Bird last year. He did very well as a 2YO and probably left a race on the training track in New Orleans. With the favorites taking opposite poles, the Derby is even more wide open. 

Even though the shape of the race screams closer, I find myself drawn a bit to Conveyance and American Lion, especially American Lion. I'm also prone to suckerdom with the filly, but she's pretty fast and seems to be in perfect form. Supers Saver also seems primed, but I have to put some closers up. The photo of the victorious, mud-caked Icebox galloping out after the Florida Derby is etched in my head. And Mission Impazible's strong, improbable late run in New Orleans also lays in my head. MI wasn't all that fast and Icebox has been shelved for 6 months but their styles are propitious. Awesome Act will be covered for most of the race and with a nicely timed move could shine. Of course there's Stately Victor too, who appears to be this year's Wiseguy. He's a looker, for sure.

1. Lookin at Lucky
2. American Lion

3. Devil May Care
4. Conveyance
5. Super Saver
6. Awesome Act
7. Mission Impazible
8. Stately Victor
9. Noble's Promise
10. Icebox
11. Sidney's Candy
12. Dublin
13. Jackson Bend
14. Backtalk

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