Tuesday, May 15, 2012


Went The Day Well 

Have we ever had a Triple Crown that's never been the favorite in any of his races? I'll Have Another would likely be the first. IHA does not dominate his competition, he outmaneuvers them and exposes their flaws (handicappers too). This is how my brother used to beat me at tennis; he'd volley and let me make a mistake. How I hate him. Where was I? Versatility. Adaptability. The most misunderstood concept Darwin introduced is The Survival of the Fittest. Many people mistake Natural Selection as preferring strength or dominance; but it's adaptability that is selected. Once again IHA will have to adapt -- he'll need to chase Bodemeister and the closers aren't going to have 18 horses backing up into them at Old Hilltop.

So far IHA has made all the right moves -- going to the lead when he needs to, stalking and pouncing when that's what's called for. But there is one minor flaw people have noticed in IHA and that's his wide cornering, which doesn't dovetail all that splendidly with Pimlico's tight turns.

Back to Bodemeister. What can we expect of this colt who has already done an awful lot. All reports point to him not moping in his stall. He's galloped nicely. Is he ready to turn the tables on the chestnut with a frizzy mane that seems an homage to the heady hair-producty 1980s? Does he know he won't need to go that fast? I'm not sure he does. And I wouldn't be surprised to see a little regression.

Went the Day Well had trouble in the Derby and nearly got there. He's gonna be a contender in the Preakness. Hopefully they get him acclimated to the track. Animal Kingdom might have won last year if it weren't for the sandy dirt hitting him -- the connections must have figured Churchill Downs was a good enough introduction to dirt. It wasn't.

Creative Cause is another who might get a better trip. I think he'll be more of a factor. And I believe the blinks are coming off. Hallelujah!    

This race can play it in so many ways. Lone speed can steal; speed dual can meltdown. Pimlico plays to speed, but the lone speed is late in his form cycle and to repeat his performaces would be amazing. I'm staying with I'll Have Another because he's the most versatile horse in this field and the most talented. I'm keeping Bodemeister close in the frame and to fill it out I'll be using Creative Cause and Went the Day Well. For an upset there's Zetterhorn, but I have no original thinking on the new shooters. They don't seem to be in the same league as the Power 4. This is going to be a fun race.

I'll Have Another
Creative Cause/Went The Day Well

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