Monday, November 5, 2012

Breeders' Cup Roundup

Marketing Mix by Gail Patejunas
The Railbird apologizes for not posting Saturday picks. For full dis I would not have had Trinniberg or Little Mike. This year's BC it was best not to post picks in advance unless you somehow knew there would be a fairly severe rail and speed bias. It forced trainers to change their strategies and strike the front at all costs. It looked like it was going to cost Shanghai Bobbie, but the rest of the 2YOS seemed to lag in the stretch with him, with the exception of the Redding horse with the annoying name.

Groupie Doll, Royal Delta and Wise Dan, none of whom speedsters, did well over ridiculously fast turf and dirt tracks. They are champions and proved it. Game On revealed the gaping hole in his armor. I thought he looked pretty lethargic in the post parade and laid off him. I thought Mucho Macho Man would have fared better, but take nothing from Fort Larned and his rider who celebrated his 28th birthday with a win in the Breeders Cup Classic.

So it was a good day, despite the biases. A few 2YOs bled, two of them from the Sadler barn (surprise, surprise). But no major incidents. Royal Delta showed she could run through a rough commute from Belmont and did so on the front end where we usually don't see her. The lasix debate will continue acrimoniously, but it was nice to see the champs do well.

Friday, November 2, 2012

Breeders's Cup Friday Picks

Awesome Feather
 by Robert Whitmore

 Very sad to read Worth Repeating has come up lame and will be scratched from the Marathon. I love the Marathon, but it's a very difficult race to handicap. I felt best about him, and may have to rethink the race.

Juvenile Filly Turf Sprint
Super 99 and Merit Man are hard to separate. Very little yield on either, but will try easing in to the festival with a chalky exacta and a cold beer.

Atigun will be the favorite and it's hard to take the fave in a race like this. But this guy was right there (kinda sorta) with Paynter and Union Rags in the Belmont (before the 3YO division completely melted down). I feel like McPeek will have a few nice wins to close out the year. I also like Not Abroad. Should be enough pace to keep this honest; may the best stayer win!

Filly Juvenile Turf
Sky Lantern looks so good there's a temptation to single her on your ticket, but this is not a good race to single. These baby, lawnmowing fillies can grow quickly. Whatsdachances, trained by the rising star Chad Brown looks very promising and both Flashy Ways and Sustained have outside chances that could make a huge difference on horizontal bets.

Filly Juvenile
Executive privilege and Springs in the Air are big standouts in this. 

Filly and Mare Turf
I've loved Marketing Mix for awhile. She came up short at Arlington in the Beverly D., but rebounded nicely and seems to relish the California turf. The Fugue stands in her way. This European invader didn't make the trip for the California alfalfa. Finally, the win at Keeneland may have woken up In Lingerie.

Ladies Classic
What a race. I think you have to beat the queen, Royal Delta, but both Questing and Awesome Feather are fast enough. Are they classy enough?